Saturday, November 14, 2009

UEFA Playoffs: Initial Coverage

Today, 4 pairs of European teams will play the first leg of the aggregate playoffs for the World Cup. The pairs (with the first host listed first and rankings in parentheses) are:

Ireland (34) v. France (9)

Portugal (10) v. Bosnia (42)

Greece (16) v. Ukraine (22)

Russia (12) v. Slovenia (49)

Just a recap as to how the playoffs work: for each pair, each team hosts one of the two games; whoever scores more goals in the two games win; if they score the same number of goals, the team that scored more in their away game wins.

All of these should be very interesting competitions. Perhaps the most interesting will be the Portugal Bosnia match-up; this is Bosnia's first time in the playoffs, and Portugal have been far from at their best recently. Cristiano Ronaldo is injured and can't play either game. Figo has retired, Deco's form has been inconsistent latently, and Manchester United's Nani appears to have given up football to further his career as a clown. In short, it is far from clear that Portugal are capable of scoring against a fairly decent team without Ronaldo. On the other hand, Bosnia are just about the best they have been in years.

I will be making predictions for each game as it comes close to kickoff. Seeing as it is almost 8, I begin with Russia v. Slovenia

This should be a close one, believe it or not. Admittedly Russia is ranked significantly higher, but Slovenia are moving up and Russia didn't look their best during the first stage of qualification, despite being in a generally easier group than Slovenia. Slovenia only conceded 4 goals in qualifying (though Russia also only conceded 6). And the Slovene team showed they were good enough on the road, especially when it counted as seen by their draw away to Poland to open the qualifying process and their win in Slovakia which delayed Slovakia's qualification to the WC and helped ensure Slovenia a spot in the playoffs. Admittedly Russia are stronger than Slovakia, but if they're not at their best...

That's not to say Russia don't have an advantage in this first game: it is at home and they are a better team (though how much better is not clear). But Slovenia also have some advantages: they are a bit of an unknown in terms of strengths: they know more about Russia than Russia know about them. Also, from the coverage of interviews of Russian players, they seem certainly a bit overconfident, which is always a problem, especially against Slovenia who are good at scoring on quick counterattacks.

Final prediction: it will be a very close match. Control of the game could go back and forth. Don't expect either side to win it by more than 1 goal, if anyone wins at all...

Friday, November 13, 2009

The Beginning of the End?

Of a conflict, that is. As mentioned in this BBC article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8359582.stm) , Turkey's government has proposed a plan to end the conflict in Turkey's Kurdish-dominated southwest. It seems from the article like a fairly reasonable bill, though I must admit I haven't read the original, my Turkish being a little rusty. Turkey has already started a government run Kurdish-language TV channel, and these new reforms would include free use of the Kurdish language.

That being said, it is far from settled as the PKK (Kurdish guerilla group, considered to be a terrorist group by the US State Department as well as the EU) has said that one precondition for a peace settlement would be amnesty for rebels. This is not part of the plan which the Turkish government has proposed. Still Turkey is trying to make progress, though it should be noted that this is certainly partly a way of reducing the barriers to Turkey joining the EU. More to come as this story develops.


P.S. Sorry for the long sabbatical, if you will. I'm going to try to post with some frequency from now on. Its good to be back.