UEFA Playoffs: Initial Coverage

Today, 4 pairs of European teams will play the first leg of the aggregate playoffs for the World Cup. The pairs (with the first host listed first and rankings in parentheses) are:

Ireland (34) v. France (9)

Portugal (10) v. Bosnia (42)

Greece (16) v. Ukraine (22)

Russia (12) v. Slovenia (49)

Just a recap as to how the playoffs work: for each pair, each team hosts one of the two games; whoever scores more goals in the two games win; if they score the same number of goals, the team that scored more in their away game wins.

All of these should be very interesting competitions. Perhaps the most interesting will be the Portugal Bosnia match-up; this is Bosnia's first time in the playoffs, and Portugal have been far from at their best recently. Cristiano Ronaldo is injured and can't play either game. Figo has retired, Deco's form has been inconsistent latently, and Manchester United's Nani appears to have given up football to further his career as a clown. In short, it is far from clear that Portugal are capable of scoring against a fairly decent team without Ronaldo. On the other hand, Bosnia are just about the best they have been in years.

I will be making predictions for each game as it comes close to kickoff. Seeing as it is almost 8, I begin with Russia v. Slovenia

This should be a close one, believe it or not. Admittedly Russia is ranked significantly higher, but Slovenia are moving up and Russia didn't look their best during the first stage of qualification, despite being in a generally easier group than Slovenia. Slovenia only conceded 4 goals in qualifying (though Russia also only conceded 6). And the Slovene team showed they were good enough on the road, especially when it counted as seen by their draw away to Poland to open the qualifying process and their win in Slovakia which delayed Slovakia's qualification to the WC and helped ensure Slovenia a spot in the playoffs. Admittedly Russia are stronger than Slovakia, but if they're not at their best...

That's not to say Russia don't have an advantage in this first game: it is at home and they are a better team (though how much better is not clear). But Slovenia also have some advantages: they are a bit of an unknown in terms of strengths: they know more about Russia than Russia know about them. Also, from the coverage of interviews of Russian players, they seem certainly a bit overconfident, which is always a problem, especially against Slovenia who are good at scoring on quick counterattacks.

Final prediction: it will be a very close match. Control of the game could go back and forth. Don't expect either side to win it by more than 1 goal, if anyone wins at all...

The Beginning of the End?

Of a conflict, that is. As mentioned in this BBC article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8359582.stm) , Turkey's government has proposed a plan to end the conflict in Turkey's Kurdish-dominated southwest. It seems from the article like a fairly reasonable bill, though I must admit I haven't read the original, my Turkish being a little rusty. Turkey has already started a government run Kurdish-language TV channel, and these new reforms would include free use of the Kurdish language.

That being said, it is far from settled as the PKK (Kurdish guerilla group, considered to be a terrorist group by the US State Department as well as the EU) has said that one precondition for a peace settlement would be amnesty for rebels. This is not part of the plan which the Turkish government has proposed. Still Turkey is trying to make progress, though it should be noted that this is certainly partly a way of reducing the barriers to Turkey joining the EU. More to come as this story develops.

P.S. Sorry for the long sabbatical, if you will. I'm going to try to post with some frequency from now on. Its good to be back.

Champions League Group Stage

The groups have been announced! Earlier today the draw was conducted. In each group of 4, the top 2 teams advance to the knockout stage, and the 3rd team enters the Europa League at its knockout stage. Here are the groups (the numbers in parenthesis are club ranking in Europe).

Group A:

Bayern Munich (8), Juventus (29), Bordeaux (38), Maccabi Haifa (90)

Group B:

Man U (2), CSKA Moscow (26), Wolfsburg (77, though this is somewhat misleading; Wolfsburg just finished their best season in club history, winning the German Bundesliga, but because rankings are based upon record in tournament competition for the last 5 seasons; Wolfsburg are most likely better than Besiktas, so I put Wolfsburg first), Besiktas (61)

Group C:

AC Milan (7), Real Madrid (14), Marseille (25), Zurich (94)

Group D:

Chelsea (3), Porto (18), Atletico (35), APOEL (158)

Group E:

Liverpool (4), Lyon (11), Fiorentina (33), Debrecen (187)

Group F:

Barca (1), Inter Milan (12), Dinamo Kiev (40), Rubin Kazan (128, though similar situation as Wolfsburg: won domestic league last year, but haven't performed well enough in the 5 year period to merit a high ranking; certainly much better than the low ranking would suggest).

Group G:

Sevilla (6), Rangers (20), Stuttgart (44), Unirea Urziceni (124, similar situation as Rubin and Wolfsburg; perhaps stronger than ranking implies).

Group H:

Arsenal (5), Alkmaar (37), Olimpiakos (39), Liege (91)

More detailed analysis coming later as well as full updates on Europa League playoff results.

Ted Kennedy 1932-2009

RIP Teddy. No one can ever truly replace you.

Champions League Playoff

Several of the second legs happen tomorrow.

Maccabi Haifa (Israel) v. Red Bull Salzburg (Austria). The first result was 1-2 in Maccabi's favor in Salzburg.

Zurich (Switzerland) v. Ventspils (Latvia). Zurich won 0-3 in Latvia.

Debrecen (Hungary) v. Levski Sofia (Bulgaria). Debrecen won 1-2 in Sofia.

Anderlecht (Belgium) v. Lyon (France). Lyon thrashed Anderlecht 5-1 in Lyon.

Atletico Madrid (hmm, where are they from?) v. Panathinaikos (Greece). Atletico won 2-3 in Greece.

As for predictions: Well, the Lyon game is irrelevant. Anderlecht simply can't win by 4 goals, let alone win most likely. So Lyon are through.

Atletico have a definite edge of Panathinaikos. Atletico last year in La Liga (Spanish league) had an away goal differential of -1, and Panathinaikos had a home goal differential of 25 (33 scored, 8 conceded). Considering Atletico last year had a home record of 13 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses (goal differential: 24) and Panathinaikos' away record in domestic competition was 7 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses (goal differential: 8), Atletico will probably get the win. I predict Atletico win by 2.

No predictions for the other matches: data harder to get, and the clubs simply aren't as likely to go far in the tournament, so it simply isn't as important if Debrecen advances as opposed to Levski Sofia. Predictions coming tomorrow (if I can manage it) for the games on Wednesday and Thursday.

Afghan Elections and Iranian Cabinets

Well, results don't seem to be in yet. Allegations of fraud and serious irregularities remain common, but to what extent it impacted the election has yet to be seen. Both Karzai and the main opponent, Abdullah Abdullah have claimed victory. A repeat of Iran's mess?

Speaking of which, Ahmadinejad announced his cabinet on the 20th, and sparked some controversy by nominating 3 women, the first time women have ever been nominated for cabinet positions since the Revolution. A very clever ploy. If they are accepted, he comes out seeming much more moderate. If they are rejected, he is seen as being moderate and the Majlis (Parliament) as hardline and really conservative. Either way, he wins. The women, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi, Fatemeh Ajorlou and Sousan Keshavarz have been nominated for the health, social welfare, and education ministries respectively.

Commentary on Arsenal v. Celtic

I'm watching the game on CSNBA (channel 40 for me), and I shall give reactions as things happen. All minutes given are approximate.

Minutes 13-15 or so: Celtic applying lots of pressure, with Arsenal forced to simply boot the ball up field when they get it as opposed to controlled build-up. Arsenal get settled afterward.

At the 22nd minute, and Arsenal having some very good passing sequences.

And Arenal definitely aren't happy now. Van Persie is down with a head injury. And the stretchers are coming out. He doesn't need them, but he appears to be walking off the pitch.

23rd minute: play resumes with Celtic possesion, but it is quickly lost as Celtic simply thump the ball up field and hope for some luck. Celtic don't seem to be interested in the more patient passing build-up that Arsenal has used. Whether that is simply their playing style in general or a wariness of overcomitting offensively and conceding on the counterattack remains to be seen.

25th: Celtic enjoying a reasonably long posession. No rush to goo anywhere, but definitely testing the Arsenal defense. Again, Arsenal aren't able to get and maintain posession.

27th: Arsenal free kick as a Celtic pass down the left wing goes too far. Celtic regain posession. Celtic throw.

28th: Celtic cross is too long. Arrsenal through. Commentatorson TV saying it has been over a decade since a Premier League club has won a tournament match at Celtic Park. Still, don't count Arsenal out.

29th: Pass over the top from Fabregas almost reached by Van Persie, but its just a little to close to Celtic keeper Boruc. Celtic posession. Arsneal posession deep in the Celtic half, but the cross is too long. Arsenal retain posession and kick it back to keeper Almunia.

Ah, I guess I should mention the line-ups, shouldn't I?

Arsenal: 4-3-3.
Keeper: Almunia
Defense: Clichy (left), Vermaelen and Gallas (center), Sagna (right)
Midfield: Denilson (left), Song (center), Fabregas (right)
Forwards: Arshavin (left), Bendtner (center), Van Persie (right)

Celtic: 4-5-1.
Keeper: Boruc
Defense: Fox (left), Loovens and Caldwell (center), Hinkel (right)
Midfield: Maloney, Donati, N'Guemo, Brown, and McGeady
Forward: Samaras.

39th minute: both sides enjoying decent posession. Few clear scoring opportunities. Still, both sides getting into rythym a little more.

41st: Arshavin gets a shot on goal, but it it is partially blocked, which takes all the venom out of it and it is easily saved.

And now Celtic have a god chance. Cut-back from the right hit away by the Arsenal defence and the follow up from Brown is saved reasonably comfortably by Almunia.

Arsenal go down the other end quickly, and Fabregas is fouled. Free kick Arsenal from 28 meters.

And its a goal!!! Fabregas takes the free kick, and Gallas hits it with his head, perhaps unintentionally, and hits it to the far post when Boruc had the near post covered. Celtic lost at home in the previous round to Dinamo Moscow 0-1, but won by 2 goals in Moscow. Will Celtic lose for a second consecutive time in Champions League competition?

And that is half time. 0-1 in favor of Arsenal. Half-time stats (courtesy of uefa.com)

Shots on target: Celtic: 1 Arsenal: 2
Shots wide: Celtic: 1 Arsenal: 0
Blocked shots: Celtic: 0 Arsenal: 1
Fouls committed: Celtic: 8 Arsenal: 6
Offsides: Celtic: 3 Arsenal: 1
Corners: Celtic: 2 Arsenal: 0
Ball Possession: Celtic: 48% Arsenal: 52%.

So fairly even, but Arsenal have the lead. Other games at this point:

Sheriff v. Olimpiakos: 0-0
Copenhagen (Denmark) v. APOEL: 0-0
Timisoara (Romania) v. Stuttgart (Germany): 0-2
Sporting Portugal (hmm, I wonder what country they're from?) v. Fiorentina (Italy): 0-1.

And we're back!

50th-Celtic pressuring a little with some good possession, but Arsenal get it, although it is quickly lost.

51st: Celtic have a free kick from the left wing. Celtic claim the Arsenal defense handled the ball (that's a no-no), but the referee says no. Oh, and on the replay there is a bit of hand, though inadvertent. Arsenal come up the other end, but Celtic regain posession.

53rd: Pass over the top for Samaras, but it is too long. Arsenal have posession at the top of the box, but Van Persie has the ball stripped. Celtic at midfield.

54th: Van Persie has a shot, but it is wide though Boruc loked a little lost.

55th: Arsenal get it to midfield and a sloppy pass hands Celtic the ball. Their cross from the right wing is headed away.

56th: Some Celtic substitutions. Donati and Samras are out. Celtic have posession around the Arsenal box on the left side. Ball is taken, and Arsenal are moving up to the center circle. Oh, and its a yellow card of N'guemo, for a bad, late challenge. This means he is suspended for the next match, for receiving a yellow in 2 consecutive games.

59th: Celtic kick. Headed out for Arsenal throw.

60th: Arsenal dominating possession lately. Arsenal has a corner. Near post header goes straight up, and Celtic gain possession. Celtic foul on the attack, and Arsenal thump the ball upfield. Relaxed passing in the midfield, but the ball is lost and Celtic counterattack, but the cross from the right is a bad one.

Well, at this point I feel like simply watching the game and not mentioning every thing. Anything BIG that happens will be mentioned. Otherwise, I will write a general reaction after the game.

70th: Oh dear. A cross from the left from Arsenal. Caldwell tries to hit it away, and instead hits it back into his own net. Its an own goal by Celtic, and now Arsenal lead 2-0 away. Celtic really are in trouble now.

90th: Celtic hasn't had any clear chances. It seems as though if the score will chance, it will be in Arsenal's favor.

Stoppage time has begun, with 2 minutes added on.

And that is it! Arsenal won 0-2. Celtic with a bit of an edge in possession, but Arsenal had more total shots (9-2).

Other results:
Sheriff 0-2 Olimpiakos
Kopenhagen 1-0 APOEL
Timisoara 0-2 Stuttgart
Sporting Portugal 2-2 Fiorentina



3oth: Celtic are offside. Arsenal kick.