Georgia seems to be facing a number of problems, a number of which aren't new. Saakashvili has been criticized for failing to seriously combat institutionalized corruption, despite his earlier promises. His predecessor, Eduard Shevardnadze was much the same. During the 70's and 80's he campaigned vigorously against corruption within the Communist Party. But during his presidency, he protected individuals involved in massive corruption, including members of his family.
Similarly, Saakashvili has been accused of being dictatorial. Both his predecessors (Zviad Gamsakhurdia and Shevardnadze) were frequently accused of dictatorial tactics. Gamsakhurdia was accused of violations of freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, and freedom of press among others. Shevardnadze rigged the 2003 elections, sparking the Rose Revolution.
The gist of what I am getting at is that one should not conclude that Saakashvili has been a major step backward for Georgia; at times members of the opposition have tried to make this fallacy appear true. It may not have improved dramatically, but corruption has been lessened in Georgia. Its rating on the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index has improved from 1.8 when Saakashvili came to power in 2003, to to 3.9 as of 2008, with the scale running from 1 (worst) to 10 (best). Fairly small improvement, but progress nonetheless. As far as corruption goes, part of the problem seems to be that the opposition has unrealistic aspirations, and thinks corruption can be eliminated overnight, and Saakashvili's failure to do so proves he is a bad leader.
However, their allegations of bullying/unfair treatment of opposition members might well be valid. Certainly his provocation of Russia was stupid at best. Honestly, what was he thinking? In this matter, I have several hypotheses. The first is that he believed the US or NATO would intervene in Georgia's behalf. If this is the case, he is reckless and foolish. Taking such a high risk over two regions with a current (there has been ethnic cleansing resulting in hundreds of thousands of ethnic Georgians leaving Abkhazia and South Ossetia, most of it in the 90's) population of 500,000 (a high estimate). My other hypothesis is that he thought he would lose, but the Russians wouldn't devastate the country. He had been losing support domestically prior to the war, so perhaps he thought the war would appeal to the nationalistic fervor of the Georgians. If that is the case, then I'm not sure he can be described in words.
Back to the talks. They have failed, as have a month of protests and the demands of parts of the opposition that Saakashvili resign. What is going to happen? To be frank, I don't know. Saakashvili seems to be stubborn, as does the opposition. However, Georgian presidents are limited to 2 terms, and Saakashvili is current in his second term. Its possible that protests will continue (unsuccessfully), and by 2013, either Saakashvili will step down, or he will prove the opposition right and try to hold on to power. Of course, all sorts of things can happen in between now and then, so the future is very uncertain. However, I think we can safely guess the government and opposition won't agree on a deal any time soon.
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