Pakistan Part 2

At this point I have a few more points to explain my the reasoning behind my conclusion that the Taliban doesn't pose an existential threat to Pakistan. But first, I think I should clarify exactly where I stand.

I don't doubt that the Taliban are dangerous. They have proven the capability to strike throughout much of Pakistan, using suicide bombs and even gunmen (as seen in the attack of the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore). But, they only are an important permanent force in the mountainous, Pashtun-dominated northwest. So I believe that the likely hood that the Taliban will actually be able to directly overthrow the Pakistani government is minimal at the most, and quite likely is effectively zero. However, the Taliban have succeeded in making large parts of the northwest areas not really under the control of the Pakistani government, and their control over these areas has helped destabilize Afghanistan. The Taliban's strength in the northwest cannot be tolerated, but their strength has been widely exaggerated. However, government policy regarding the Taliban could make or break the government (or any future administration), so in that sense, the Taliban can contribute to the fall of the government (or rather the transition to a new administration).

Here are my last points to support my reasoning. An important weakness for the Taliban is their idea of law. Contrary to popular belief, Taliban law is not derived entirely from Shariah (Islamic law, which in reality is no monolithic set of beliefs; there are many interpretations of Islamic law, and in this case Islamic doesn't necessarily mean fundamentalist), but also upon Pashtunwali (Pashtun tribal law/code). The Punjabis and Sindhis (who are a combined 58% of the country), don't follow Pashtunwali (a bit obvious, I know, but still worth pointing out). Therefore a law system which is partially derived from a tribal law not recognized by other groups such as Punjabis or Sindhis will therefore lack legitimacy among these groups.

My final reason, which is closely tied to the previous point, is that the Pashtun are still divided into tribes. They aren't unified. This was seen in the Soviet-Afghan war, when Pashtuns fore the most part failed to united with other ethnic groups (such as Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazara, etc.) let alone other tribes of Pashtuns. The Taliban in Afghanistan were always dominated by one of the main tribes, the Durrani. In fact, their leadership (and even military force) was dominated by Durranis specifically from Kandahar. I have NEVER read any article which has indicated the Taliban and other related groups in Pakistan have allied across tribal lines. These tribal divisions do naturally make it extraordinarily difficult for the Pakistanis to achieve a convincing victory: they might manage to defeat one group, but many others would still remain. But, it also makes the idea of the militants succeeding in actually militarily defeating the Pakistani army, let alone completely toppling the government absurd.

But, just to make sure I have been clear. I am extremely worried by the resiliency of the militants, and the potential of Pakistan's northwest becoming a safe haven and training ground for global terrorism the way much of Afghanistan was in the 90's. But I am not worried about the actual safety of the Pakistani government, and the exaggerated fear of people as influential as Hillary Clinton seriously worries me. I hope that this administration will base its actions and policies based off of what is clearly real, as opposed to wild fears based off gut reaction.