Looks potentially dangerous for Ahmadinejad. Of course, there are polls floating around which indicate Ahmadinejad is leading by a massive margin; some show him with support of 55% or more of voters. Now there's just one problem with these polls. They weren't conducted by some independent polling agency, but rather by news agencies which are very much supporters of the current administration. Their polls are inherently flawed because they want to show Ahmadinejad with a massive lead. Of course, polls showing opponents such as Mousavi leading are similarly flawed because they were conducted only in the major cities, where Ahmadinejad is weakest (the agencies conducting such polls are pro-"reformist," a term which is very vague and can be misleading). So who will win? We don't know. Unless independent, impartial polling agencies can come to Iran and do their stuff, it is hard to know who will win. I would not put any money on Ahmadinejad winning: the economy is not doing so well, and he faces fierce opposition from the Iranian right (who disagree with his implementation of policy) as well as the Iranian left (who hate his policies as a whole). Just to be clear, don't think of the right or left wing in Iran as being the same in the US. They aren't. There really aren't many similarities at all. More on that later.
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