Confederations Cup

Well, it has been a while, hasn't it. Work and laziness helped keep me away from blogging, but no more. I shall resume with a post on the ongoing Confederations Cup, which has had some very interesting results.

First, it has come as a harsh reminder to the US that they are no power house, and that they have serious work to do. The US is pretty much eliminated, having lost to Italy 3-1 and Brazil 3-0, and suffering the humiliation of a player sent off in each match. I'll admit, I didn't see either of the games. But I saw significant replays, and they were humiliating. The US was cut to shreds: Brazil scored a goal after the US turned over the ball on a US corner kick (pathetic)! None of the US players seriously challenged the ball, a failure which seems to have occurred repeatedly throughout the tournament for the technically challenged US side.

With its last game against Egypt, whose morale is sky high after narrowly losing to Brazil in a close game and beating Italy, all the US can hope to do is get a point out of the game. But I wouldn't bet on it. The US done poorly in terms of possession, averaging a meager 41.5% per game so far. The US has on on average taken 13 fewer total shots than its opponents, including an average of 8 on goal (meaning on target). The US has gotten just 4 corners in 2 games, as opposed to 15 for its opponents. When one looks at FIFA's handy ball possession heat map (showing where each team had the ball most of the time), it quickly becomes obvious that whenever the US has had the ball, it has been pinned pretty far back in its own half, while the opposing team has been able to attack with ease. One thing I noticed from the replays was that the US failed to challenge the ball, so the Brazilians (and Italians) were able to go where they wanted at whatever pace they wanted. All this combined with the US's knack for getting players ejected makes me think the US is not likely to win against Egypt.

This is especially because Egypt has performed very well so far. When they played Brazil, they actually had a slight edge in terms of possession (52%), and lost due to a controversial penalty. Stats for the two teams were very even. Unfazed by the loss, Egypt went and beat Italy. Yes, it was 1-0, but Egypt played better. They had some very fine coordinated passing sequences and some brilliant runs down the flank which were rarely challenged well, but often the crosses were a bit lacking. On defense, they pressured Italy intensely and forced Italy to the side, giving the Italians few open shots, and Italy's crosses or passes from the side were poor as they were forced to be running away the goal, leaving them off balanced when they tried to cross into the middle of the field. Italy may have won in terms of possession and shots, but it in the end, it is the quality of possession and shots which matters, and in that respect, Egypt won easily. Their keeper was also fantastic; when Italy finally managed to get some decent shots of, every time the keeper was there to deny them. I will predict and Egyptian win, most likely by 1 or 2 goals, partly depending upon Egypt's injury issues.

As for Italy v. Brazil, I'd have to go with Brazil. Admittedly I want Brazil to win, but I simply was unimpressed with Italy in their game against Egypt. On the attack they were often uninspiring and not too well coordinated. They had to come back against the US, conceding a first half penalty, and their last goal came in the 4th minute of second half stoppage time. Leaving it late is risky business against Brazil, who has looked pretty strong.

Of course, Spain are still favorites to win the whole thing. They currently have a 35 game unbeaten streak, including 15 consecutive victories. Can they be stopped? We shall see, but I don't think it will come at this tournament.